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General election nerves provoke gilt sell-off

Kit Klarenberg
Written By:
Kit Klarenberg
Posted:
Updated:
17/04/2015

International investors have started avoiding the UK bond market, as the most uncertain election in almost half a century approaches.

Data released by the Debt Management Office shows that that non-residents international investors reduced their gilt holdings by a net £14bn in the first two months of this year – and their share of the market currently stands at its lowest point since the financial crisis. Commenting on the data, Andy Chaytor of Nomura said it “suggests some kind of buyers’ strike.”

“This is entirely consistent with the idea that non-residents may wish to reduce gilt holdings in the face of a very uncertain election,” he concluded.

The exodus has intensified recently, following a number of high-profile warnings about the state of the UK’s finances, and future economic stability. Last week, Albert Edwards (chief global strategist of Société Générale) said the UK was a “ticking time bomb”, and that the coalition has presided over “grotesquely wide deficits in both public sector finances and external imbalances.”

The International Monetary Fund likewise warned two days ago that a balanced UK budget was an unrealistic prospect, noting that public sector debt is expected to equal over 80 per cent of national income this fiscal year (compared with 35 per cent a decade ago) and the UK current account deficit, at 5.5 per cent of GDP last year, had already reached its highest level on record.

Simon Peck of RBS yesterday advised clients to ‘short’ the pound, based on the prospect that the next government would not have the political clout necessary to restore the UK’s economy. “Fiscal consolidation is unlikely to be implemented as currently planned by either a minority government or one formed from left-of-centre parties for their support,” Peck believes.

 


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