At midnight on Monday, the American government began an orderly shut-down after politicians once again put party affiliation ahead of their country’s best interests, but markets hardly blinked.

Monday night’s drama was just the prelude to a potentially much more damaging stand-off in the middle of October where there is the possibility the US government won’t be able to pay the interest and principal on its Treasury bonds.

As these form the bedrock of the global financial system, such a default is a pretty terrifying prospect. But investment commentators are still positive about the investment case for the US. Here is why:

Investors think that all this fiscal uncertainty is likely to lead to monetary policy staying looser for longer. Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that one of the reasons for delaying the “tapering” of quantitative easing a couple of weeks ago was the on-going uncertainty over the budget and debt ceiling. If the uncertainty persists then the likelihood of the Fed reducing its purchases of government bonds this month – $85bn a month at the moment – is clearly reduced. A delay to the taper means more liquidity for longer which, other things being equal, is good news for markets.

The second reason relates to the likelihood that, in the words of Winston Churchill, America will do the right thing after fully exploring all the alternatives. In other words, as in 2011, the politicians will blink at the last minute, pass the budget and then raise the debt ceiling. The rational approach for investors has been to do nothing in the past. Second guessing the same result has kept investors fully invested and the market has, therefore, maintained its composure.

Remember this is not a case of America being unable to pay its bills. It is perfectly able to borrow more to do so just as soon as it chooses to stop playing games. Given the consequences of not coming to their senses in time, it is hard to believe that the politicians will allow this catastrophe to unfold.

A third reason for the market to have been unfazed by the shenanigans in Washington is the fact that the US economy is in much better shape than it was two years ago. It is better placed to handle this kind of short-term dislocation, arguably four years into a recovery that looks more entrenched as each month goes by with unemployment falling and the housing market back on its feet.

Just as the Fed’s failure to introduce the taper recently blind-sided any investor who had assumed there would be a reduction in stimulus, this week’s shut-down would have been painful for anyone expecting a negative market reaction. It just goes to show that predicting the short term direction of the market is a mug’s game.

Far better to keep an eye on your long-term goals and leave playing the short-term zigs and zags of the market to gamblers. As recent events have shown you will get it wrong as often as you get it right. You certainly shouldn’t confuse this kind of speculation with real investment.

Tom Stevenson is investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment