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British Chambers of Commerce predicts return to pre-crisis GDP growth in 2014

Nick Paler
Written By:
Nick Paler
Posted:
Updated:
12/12/2013

The UK economy has been tipped to breach its pre-crisis peak as early as next year, instead of 2016, as previously forecast, by UK business network the British Chambers of Commerce.

The recent acceleration in growth has prompted the BCC to bring forward its prediction for a return to pre-crisis levels of growth by the third quarter of 2014.

The business group forecast a GDP rise of 2.7% in 2014, up from its prediction of 2.2%, made as recently as August.

This change of tune comes on the back of strengthening household consumption and an accelerating growth trend, with the UK economy growing 0.8% in the third quarter.

Although a return to pre-crisis growth next year would still mean it took the UK six years to fully recover, the new estimate counters fears of a ‘lost decade’.

The BCC has also increased its growth forecast for 2013 by one percentage point to 1.4%, but lowered its prediction for 2015 from 2.5% to 2.4% in the expectation that rising household debt will halt consumption.

David Kern, BCC chief economist, said: “We believe that in 2014 UK GDP will at long last move above its 2008 pre-recession level.

“But long term trends show we can do much better, and with the right policies in place we can expect a much stronger recovery in the second half of the decade.”

However, while recent data has been positive, the latest report from the Office for National Statistics suggests growth in the third quarter of this year was still 2.5% off the 2008 peak.


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