Today, I’d like to go a step further and ask which markets and sectors might perform better or worse when rates do finally turn.

The reason why this matters today is that both Janet Yellen and Mark Carney, the heads of the central banks in America and Britain, have indicated clearly in the past week or so that the first rate hikes on both sides of the Atlantic are on their way. There remains some doubt about exactly when they will arrive but what looks certain is that by the end of 2015, the Fed at least will have pulled the trigger.

My starting point is some number-crunching by the strategists at Goldman Sachs this week. It looked at the periods around first rate hikes by the Federal Reserve over the past 40 years and concluded that while markets often wobble in the immediate aftermath of the first rate rise (the first three months), by the time a year has gone by the picture tends to look a lot brighter.

What is really striking about the analysis, however, is the difference between the performance of the US market after a US rate rise and how other markets fare over the same period.

Since 1976, the average return for the S&P 500 over the three months following an initial rate hike has been 2%, rising to 6% after a year. Share prices in Europe, Japan, Asia, and even emerging markets, however, have tended to rise by around 15% in the year after the first Federal Reserve rate hike.

This may reflect the fact that while different countries’ economic cycles are linked there is often a lag. This is certainly the case today where the US is leading the recovery and moving into a tightening phase, even as other countries remain firmly in easing mode. Perhaps the good news is now in the price on Wall Street but still emerging in the rest of the world.

Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are still stimulating their economies. This is pushing their currencies lower, which is good news for exporters and overseas earners. Share prices should continue to reflect this competitive advantage in the months ahead. For that reason, many asset allocators have started moving money out of the US (where valuations and profit margins are already high) and into Europe and Japan.

Before you rebalance your portfolio away from the US and towards Europe and Japan, however, a few things are worth considering. First, currencies. If the Fed is first out of the blocks with rate rises then the dollar is likely to resume its recent strength versus the world’s other leading currencies. That means that the positive news for European and Japanese equity markets may be offset to an extent by ongoing weakness in the euro and yen. A US investment may not perform brilliantly in absolute terms but to an overseas holder its more modest gains could be magnified by a strengthening currency.

A second consideration is how different sectors within markets might perform in a rate-tightening cycle. History shows that overvalued parts of the market can be at risk when the cost of money rises. In 1987, for example, the stock market crash is thought to have been triggered in part by tighter interest rate policy. And the bursting of the technology bubble in 1999 was also prompted by higher rates.

Sectors that may be at risk are those that behave most like bonds – areas like property REITs and defensive parts of the market like consumer staples which have been so popular in recent years as investors have chased income in a low-yield environment. That said, some growth-focused areas of the market like technology could also suffer if investors decide that valuations have pushed too far (the Nasdaq market is trading at an all-time high this week). Sectors like consumer discretionary and industrials, which respond to a growing economy, may do relatively well.

The second half of 2015 is shaping up to be an interesting period as investors position themselves for the next phase in the interest cycle. With the last hike in US rates as long ago as 2006, some investors will have little first-hand experience of how markets behave in a tightening environment.

And don’t forget that history rhymes rather than repeats itself. A well-diversified portfolio, spread across different asset classes and geographies, will help you to keep your wealth in tact if things don’t turn out quite as the history books suggest.

Tom Stevenson is associate investment director at Fidelity Personal Investing