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What will the General Election result mean for your investments?

Emma Lunn
Written By:
Emma Lunn
Posted:
Updated:
14/11/2019

With four weeks to go until Brits go to the polls, Interactive Investor has taken a look at implications for markets based around the key possible scenarios.

Recent opinion polls put the Conservative plus Brexit parties somewhere about 47 per cent support, with Labour circa 29 per cent and the Remain parties about 24 per cent.

But even if these numbers could be relied upon to be a true reflection of voting intentions across the country as a whole, the prospects for large regional variations and tactical voting mean that the election outcome is still extremely difficult to call.

So, as it stands at the moment, there are still a range of potential outcomes that could be delivered on, or after, 12 December.

Conservative victory

If there is a majority for the Conservatives, this implies the rapid return of Boris’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said: “The UK equity market would probably take the imminent passage of this bill as a positive, since all Conservative MPs would know they might find themselves in Boris’s eponymous ditch if they didn’t vote for it this time. In this scenario, UK-focused stocks would be likely to do reasonably well, as would sterling, as long as the actual withdrawal was expected to avoid a hard Brexit.”

If a Conservative victory came with a customs-union type Brexit, Interactive Investor predicts this would probably be modestly positive for UK focused companies, including those in the FTSE250 or UK smaller companies including AIM.

However, it is likely the FTSE100 wouldn’t do quite as well because of its global nature and the negative correlation between sterling and the value of large global UK-listed stocks.

Hung parliament

“A hung parliament is not just one, but many potential outcomes,” said O’Keeffe, “If things don’t go smoothly for the two major parties, there is every prospect that parties with a clearer Brexit vs remain message will do well. This appeared to be more of a risk to the Conservatives around the time of the European elections earlier in the year but appears now to be a greater risk to Labour in the current climate.”

There are three possible coalitions to consider. First, a hard-Brexit alliance of Conservative and Brexit parties. This would undoubtedly get Brexit done, but might also be excruciatingly painful for UK plc if it meant a cleaner break with Europe to satisfy the Brexiteers.

The other hung parliament options are a coalition where no one party has overall control, and a rainbow alliance of pro-remain parties plus Labour. The latter might push through a second people’s vote.

“Very little within these three coalition scenarios looks great, with either a hard Brexit or further Parliamentary paralysis the most likely outcomes,” said O’Keeffe.

The potential uncertainty in the event of a hung parliament means that there may be limited good options for UK investors in this scenario. A global fund or trust might be a good option, for example F&C Investment Trust, which has weathered all manner of storms over its 150-plus-year history, or Murray International investment trust, which combines growth and income.

Labour victory

Despite Jeremy Corbyn’s Lazarus-style recovery in the last election, it would be reasonable to suggest that Labour is very unlikely to get a majority this time around.

“Such an outcome would therefore be a major shock, causing sterling and UK equities to suffer significant damage. Buy gold! iShares Physical Gold is an ETF that should benefit handsomely in such an unlikely scenario,” advises O’Keeffe.

What should investors do?

Investors have a choice of individual shares, precious metals, bonds, funds or investment trusts depending on their election view. With a wide range of potential outcomes still a distinct possibility ahead of voting on 12 December, the adage caveat emptor is perhaps most appropriate at this stage in the election campaign.

While most investments simply move according to their underlying asset prices, the structure of investment trusts adds an extra layer of potential opportunity or threat.

If there is a Conservative victory leading to a moderately sensible Brexit, we may see investment trusts outperforming their underlying holdings – so discounts could narrow or even move to a premium. In the case of a hung parliament, or a Labour victory, there could be some nasty discounts if market sentiment were to deteriorate sharply.


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