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‘No signs’ of recovery in Scottish housing market – Lloyds

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16/11/2012
There are ‘no signs’ of a recovery in Scottish house prices, according to Donald MacRae, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Scotland.

The bank’s Scottish House Price Monitor looked at quarterly house prices figures in the country and found property prices had fallen by 0.3% in the last 12 months.

MacRae said that positives recorded in previous surveys had now all but disappeared, leaving a bleak outlook for the Scottish market.

“The pick-up in activity and price of the summer has been reversed with the Scottish housing market expressing low levels of consumer confidence and a return to recession.

“There are no signs in this latest quarter of any robust recovery in the Scottish housing market but equally no indications of sustained, deep falls in price.”

The average Scottish house price now stands at £155,188, the bank says this is around 90% of the average levels recorded at the start of 2008. Prices during August, September and October were also down 5.8% on the previous quarter with transaction levels plummeting 26% in the same period.

“Consumer confidence turned negative at the beginning of 2011 and remained negative for 18 months,” MacRae added.

“The latest figure for quarter three this year shows a return to positive territory. However, consumer confidence still remains low and the rate of increase in consumer spending remains modest.”

“The Scottish housing market had adjusted to the recession with a halving of sales and a period of price volatility. The previous Monitor results showed a pick-up in both activity and prices. However, that pick-up has been reversed in the latest quarter leaving average house prices at 90% of their pre-recession peak.”

Earlier this week, research by LSL Property Services suggested house prices in Scotland were currently in the biggest slump seen since 2009.

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