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How investors can spot the next Apple

Joanna Faith
Written By:
Joanna Faith
Posted:
Updated:
21/02/2013

Discovering the world’s next big investment opportunity does not have to be an impossible task.

It’s every investor’s dream to find the next Apple.

Unfortunately, spotting the next big investment opportunity before everyone else is no mean feat. The investable universe is made up of thousands of companies and sifting through them can seem like an endless task.

However, there are a few tips which could help improve your chances.

The first thing to remember is the next winner can come from anywhere – a small start-up business to an established blue-chip. It can come from a medical innovation, a medical break-through, a new form of energy or simply a product launch that taps into consumer demand and offers something we didn’t even realise we needed.

To be ahead of the game, you need to be aware of what’s happening around you. Listening to what other investors are talking about on blogs and forums is a good way to spot opportunities. You could also look for trends in the news about topical issues and then research the companies behind those stories.

Another tip is to consider the holdings fund managers are putting into the funds, such as those who invest in emerging markets or smaller companies.

There are also funds which focus entirely on discovering the next Apple. Dominion Fund Management, Sarasin and JP Morgan Asset Management are three examples of firms that offer such products.

Stockbrokers TD Direct Investing suggest reviewing companies’ annual reports and seeing what those companies are saying now and what they are planning for the future.

But what exactly should you be looking for? Looking back at the Apple story may offer some clues. When the company launched the iPod in 2001 it was loss-making. With a share price of just 9.3p, the company was close to bankruptcy.

This was significant, according to James Kinghorn, a fund manager at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership.

“Trying to find the next Apple requires identifying a business model that is unique, disruptive, and mistrusted by investors, in other words they don’t believe the business model can succeed.”

One reason for this so-called mistrust was the fact the iPod was far from the first MP3 player to hit the market. A number of companies including Sony had been selling the products long before the iPod debuted.

So, what saw Apple’s fortunes turnaround and its share price climb over the years, eventually hitting 700p in September 2012?

 

 

The simple answer is it created a superior customer experience with innovative products. It then encouraged customers to stay with the company by launching the iTunes software, where people could buy music, apps and films. By creating products that sync together, Apple produced a seamless customer experience. All this combined created a strong barrier to entry.

It also created pricing power; it could charge whatever it wanted as customers had little choice but to use its software.

Another unique part of the Apple story is it grew organically. It produced a long line of upgraded and new products so did not have to rely on big acquisitions.

The final piece of the puzzle is the business model was scalable. The company has grown year in, year out because it has been able to tap into emerging markets, in particular the growing middle classes in countries like China and India.

There is a rule of thumb that says by the time something hits the news, it has probably already had an effect on a company’s share price – either positively or negatively.

However, that is not to say an investor has missed the boat entirely. For example, somebody who waited until the launch of the iPhone in 2007 to invest in Apple will be sitting on a nice profit now.

The key thing is do your research before committing any hard earned money.

 

A timeling of Apple’s share price

 

Date

Product launch

 Share price close that week

23/10/01 iPod                      9.335
06/01/04 iPod Mini                      11.50
11/01/05 iPod Shuffle                      35.10
29/6/07 iPhone                     122.04
05/11/07 iPod Touch (8 & 16 GB)                     131.77
27/02/08 iPod Touch (32 GB)                     125.02
11/07/08 iPhone 3G (8 & 16 GB)                     172.58
19/06/09 iPhone 3GS (16 & 32 GB)                     139.48
03/04/10 iPad (Wi-Fi)                     241.79
30/04/10 iPad (Wi-Fi & 3G)                     261.09
24/06/10 iPhone 4 (16 & 32 GB)                     266.70
11/03/11 iPad 2 (16, 32 & 64 GB)                     351.99
14/10/11 iPhone 4S (16, 32 & 64 GB)                     422.00
21/09/12 iPhone 5                     700.095
02/11/12 iPad mini                     576.80

 *Share price as at market close on Tuesday, 19th February = 459.97