You are here: Home - Investing - Experienced Investor - News -

BLOG: Why we’re not heading for another 2008

Written by: Adrian Lowcock, head of investing, AXA Wealth
The recent volatility in stock markets has sent the bulls running for cover and the bears out of hibernation. But we're in a far better position than we were entering the financial crisis of 2008.

2016 has got off to one of the worst starts on record; the Chinese Shanghai Composite index is down nearly 22%, oil has fallen 18%, while Japanese and European markets are down around 15% each. The picture doesn’t look much better in the UK and US where markets are down around 10%.

China has been leading the world down this time, as weaker than forecast economic data has raised concerns that China is on the brink of collapse and growth will slow rapidly and bring down the rest of the world with it. Weaker oil prices add to concerns that the global economy is on the brink of another recession.

Markets can be volatile and can fall far and fast in a short space of time. While big collapses are not common place, they are not as rare as we would like. Financial crises, on the other hand, tend to be far and few between. In the run up to the 2008 crisis few were predicting any such crisis. Since then barely a year goes by without someone making a dire warning that a repeat of 2008 is imminent.

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic and gloomy; China is struggling to turn its economy from an exporter into a domestic consumer, growth is likely to be lower than expected and an economic hard larding is a possibility. As China slows down, it will weaken its currency which has a deflationary effect around the world.

Europe still has some structural problems, Greece has disappeared from the headlines but the problems remain. The biggest concern, however, is that governments do not have any money and cannot spend their way out of recession. Having printed huge sums of money through quantitative easing, they are heavily indebted and have record low interest rates. Should global growth disappear they just don’t have the fire power or tools available to stimulate any economic recovery.

2008 was much more than a bear market or even a global recession. It was a breakdown of western financial system to point that bank’s wouldn’t lend to each other because they didn’t know who to trust or which institutions would be solvent the next day let alone the next month. Since the financial crisis regulation has been tightened, banks are required to hold more money on their balance sheets and they have spent the past seven years rebuilding their balance sheets and unwinding their complex financial arrangements.

As a result, the private sector in the UK and US is in a much stronger position than it was entering the financial crisis of 2008. Governments and major institutions are more aware of the risks then they were in 2008. The crisis that hurt investors the most are usually the ones that come out of the blue.


There are 0 Comment(s)

If you wish to comment without signing in, click your cursor in the top box and tick the 'Sign in as a guest' box at the bottom.

Big flu jab price hikes this winter: Where’s cheapest if you can’t get a free vaccine?

Pharmacies, supermarkets and health retailers are starting to offer flu jabs ahead of the winter season, but t...

Is now the time to fix your energy deal?

Fixed energy tariffs all but disappeared during the energy crisis. But now they are back with an increasing nu...

Everything you need to know about the pension triple lock

Retirees are braced to receive another bumper state pension pay rise next year due to the triple lock mechanis...

What will happen if rates change

How your finances will be impacted by a rise in interest rates.

Regular Savings Calculator

Small regular contributions can build up nicely over time.

Online Savings Calculator

Work out how your online savings can build over time.

The best student bank accounts in 2023: Cash offers, tastecards and 0% overdrafts

A number of banks are luring in new student customers with cold hard cash this year – while others are compe...

DIY investors: 10 common mistakes to avoid

For those without the help and experience of an adviser, here are 10 common DIY investor mistakes to avoid.

Mortgage down-valuations: Tips to avoid pulling out of a house sale

Down-valuations are on the rise. So, what does it mean for home buyers, and what can you do?

Money Tips of the Week