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Asia’s growth story: four alternatives to China

Joanna Faith
Written By:
Joanna Faith
Posted:
Updated:
20/05/2022

As growth in the world’s second largest economy slows, it may be time to consider some other exciting investment destinations.

Investors searching for growth have been encouraged for some time to look east.

During the worst of the financial crisis, as much of the West struggled to stay afloat following years of overleveraging, Asia’s fast growing economies were a welcome antidote, with China’s illustrious growth story receiving much of the attention.

However, news that the world’s second largest economy has started to slow has left some investors spooked. Between April and June China’s economy grew by 7.5% compared to the previous year, down from 7.7% in the January to March period.

Luckily, the Asian growth story is not just constrained to China. There are a number of other markets each with their own compelling investment case.

Here, we highlight four:

THAILAND

The Thai economy is booming; economic growth was an impressive 6.4% in 2012 and is forecast to rattle along around 5% for the next couple of years. Put into the context of a continuing recession in the eurozone and a meagre 0.6% growth rate in the UK in the second quarter, this is all the more impressive.

After a painful period of deleveraging, Thailand embarked on a strategy of promoting its domestic economy and focussed on developing trade within its region. Thailand has now built up competitive capabilities in electronics and automobiles, and also generates substantial income from tourism.

Jake Robbins, senior investment manager of the Premier Global Alpha Growth fund, says: “Combine a growing economy with a young population and a burgeoning middle class, and you have the recipe for sustainable and strong domestic driven growth.”

THE PHILIPPINES

While the Philippines’ stockmarket is small it has good investment prospects. Its population of 95 million is young with about half under 25. The Philippines logged 7.8% GDP growth for April, up from 7.1% in March. GDP growth for the next couple of years is expected to approach 6% a year, with consumption growing at an even greater rate.

Jason Pidcock, manager of the Newton Asian Income fund says the government is doing a ‘cracking job’ and that lots of Filipinos with international experience are coming back to the county.

Carolyn Chan, co-manager of the Liontrust Asia Income fund, owns Alliance Global, a food and beverage company.

She says: “It acts as an excellent proxy to the ongoing structural increase in discretionary spending in the country. It has high exposure to domestic consumption through its involvement in the gaming, food and alcoholic beverages sectors. Its businesses include Emperador Distillers, manufacturer of the third best selling liquor in the world which dominates the Philippines with a 45% market share.”

VIETNAM

Its good location between North and South East Asia, stable government and politics and lower wage costs relative to more developed Asian nations have all contributed to the influx of foreign direct investment into Vietnam over the past few years.

The nation has brought in over $7bn per annum for the last five years, which has been hugely significant in an economy with a nominal GDP of $141.66bn in 2012.

The arrival of the first McDonald’s into the communist country early next year may also be a sign that the growing middle class is expanding consumption to new levels.

However, Vietnam’s GDP growth figures have been slowing in recent years even though 5% growth in real terms is acceptable.

INDIA

India has the world’s second largest population, but crucially it has a large young English speaking population, setting it apart from China.

While India’s markets have been poor, partially due to a deadlock in government that has paralysed many infrastructure projects and capital spend, the next election, which will be sometime between October 2013 and April 2014, should pave the way for change.

Ben Yearsley, head of investment research at Charles Stanley Direct, says:

“Slowdown of capital expenditure has meant GDP came down to 5.5% from about 7%. People feel a bit depressed but consumer spending has held up. Inflation is coming down rapidly and bond yields are falling. Interest rates have been cut three times already this year and there could be more cuts.

“Companies are in reasonable shape, lower commodity prices are helping and the introduction of the biometric ID card to over 400 million people will be revolutionary and help cut fraud.”