You are here: Home - Investing -

Could sterling fall another 20% as current account deficit widens?

0
Written by:
16/10/2014
Sterling could fall much further against the US dollar if the UK's current account deficit is not addressed, bond managers have said.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics shows the UK’s current account deficit widened once again in the three months to September and now stands at £23.1bn in Q2, beating the previous high of £22.8bn seen in 2013.

Sterling made a strong start against both the US dollar and euro this year, until fears over a ‘yes’ vote in the Scottish referendum marked a near-term top at just over $1.70.

Sterling has fallen sharply since then and is now down 4 per cent against the dollar year to date at just over $1.59, with a widening deficit adding to downwards pressures.

Ben Lord, bond manager at M&G, said: “Our view is that sterling strength is not sustainable with such a large current account deficit.

“Every time there has been such a deficit, we have a seen a correction in sterling of up to 20 per cent, so we should see [a similar correction] this time.”

Kevin Doran, chief investment officer at Brown Shipley, labelled sterling fundamentally weak, despite recent strength.

“Sterling is fundamentally a weak currency,” he said. “The UK cannot persist with its currency account deficit and expect the currency to remain strong in the long term.

“If the deficit remains as it is, we will have to attract in the realm of £100bn in foreign direct investment. Without this, sterling could drop as much as 15 per cent.”

In the near term, however, Doran sees the strength of sterling as being determined by interest rate expectations.

This week’s surprise drop in UK inflation to 1.2 per cent has reduced the likelihood of an interest rate hike before the general election in May 2015.

When rates do rise, the pound could appreciate as investors see sterling assets as a better option. In that context, some suggest sterling has fallen far enough already.

Gero Jung, chief economist at Mirabaud Asset Management, said: “We do not see sterling depreciating further from here.

“The UK economy is doing well, the unemployment rate is falling, five-year inflation expectations remain above 3 per cent, and even the low CPI reading could be seen positively for consumer spending given weak average weekly earnings.”

However, Jupiter’s Ariel Bezalel said current market pressures will mean talk of a rate rise is soon put on the backburner.

“Sterling looks very vulnerable here. Markets are talking about rate rises on the near-term horizon, but those will be quietly abandoned soon,” he said.

Related Posts

Tag Box

There are 0 Comment(s)

If you wish to comment without signing in, click your cursor in the top box and tick the 'Sign in as a guest' box at the bottom.

Everything you wanted to know about ISAs…but were afraid to ask

The new tax year is less than a fortnight away and for ISA savers or investors, it’s hugely important. If yo...

Your right to a refund if travel is affected by train strikes

There have been a wave of train strikes in the past six months, and for anyone travelling today Friday 3 Febru...

Could you save money with a social broadband tariff?

Two-thirds of low-income households are unaware they could be saving on broadband, according to Uswitch.

What will happen if rates change

How your finances will be impacted by a rise in interest rates.

Regular Savings Calculator

Small regular contributions can build up nicely over time.

Online Savings Calculator

Work out how your online savings can build over time.

DIY investors: 10 common mistakes to avoid

For those without the help and experience of an adviser, here are 10 common DIY investor mistakes to avoid.

Mortgage down-valuations: Tips to avoid pulling out of a house sale

Down-valuations are on the rise. So, what does it mean for home buyers, and what can you do?

Five tips for surviving a bear market mauling

The S&P 500 has slipped into bear market territory and for UK investors, the FTSE 250 is also on the edge. Her...

Money Tips of the Week