Investing
Goldman Sachs gives England 1.4% chance of winning World Cup
Goldman Sachs’ statistical model of the 2014 World Cup has predicted Brazil will beat Argentina in the final – and given England just a 1.4 per cent chance of success.
In a 67-page preview of the tournament, based on a stochastic analysis of competitive international football fixtures since 1960, the investment bank predicts the host nation will triumph 3-1 in the final.
Its quantitative model gives a 48.5 per cent probability to Brazil winning the tournament, almost double the probability assigned by some bookmakers, with Argentina the second favourites with a 14.1 per cent chance of success.
England, by contrast, are assigned just a 1.4 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, a probability which nevertheless makes them 7th favourites for the competition.
Goldman’s model forecasts three successive 1-1 draws for England in their group games against Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica, and rates their chances of getting to the second round as little better than 50/50.
“It is not our base case that England will make it to the final stages of this year’s World Cup. But, given the long odds currently quoted on England progressing to that point, they might be worth an outside bet for the semis,” the report said.
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Among the bolder predictions made by the report is that there will be just one clean sheet in the 63 games of the tournament (excluding the third-place play-off, for which it does not provide a prediction).
Looking back at its predictions for the 2010 World Cup, Goldman admits its individual score predictions are relatively unimpressive, “because football is ultimately a pretty random game”.
But the bank does highlight its success at predicting the knockout stages.
“The model correctly predicted 13 of the 16 teams that advanced to the knockout stages, five of eight teams that advanced to the quarter finals and three out of four teams that made it to the semi-finals.
“The model did not, however, correctly predict (ex ante) that Spain would win the World Cup. Spain had a 15.7 per cent probability of winning, behind Brazil at 26.6% though narrowly ahead of eventual runners-up Netherlands.”
This year, Goldman predicts the quarters will feature Brazil v Uruguay, France v Germany, Spain v Italy and Argentina v Portugal, with semi-finals of Brazil v Germany and Spain v Argentina preceding the home team’s eventual triumph.