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Investors predict gold to rise 20 per cent before the end of the year

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Written by: Emma Lunn
26/07/2019
Gold prices are set to rise by a fifth before the end of 2019, according to a user survey by BullionVault.

The price for gold reached an eight-year high last week, peaking at $1,446.70 per ounce. On Friday morning the price stood at $1,418.40.

The 10th semi-annual survey of BullionVault users found that two-thirds (65 per cent) of precious metals investors predict prices will rise up to 20 per cent before the end of 2019.

The survey also found that one in three (35 per cent) investors believe geopolitical uncertainty to be the single main factor driving gold prices, a factor also ranked most important by investors in December 2018’s survey.

Of more than 850 investors surveyed, three-fifths (61 per cent) believe there could be a US recession before the end of 2020. More than a third (38 per cent) reason it is simply a matter of time now the current expansion has run for so long, with more than a fifth (21 per cent) stating that the debts now built up cannot be sustained.

A further one in three (31 per cent) state that monetary policy is the main influence on gold price, compared to just over one in 10 (13 per cent) who cited it six months ago.

Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault.com, said: “Gold has risen 14 per cent so far in 2019, driven both by the worsening US-China trade war and by the sudden promise of interest-rate cuts and a return to QE by central banks worldwide.

“Today’s mix of geopolitical tension with monetary inflation makes a compelling case for investors to buy gold. The backdrop for further gains looks strong, even with gold now just 5 per cent below its 2011 peak in Sterling terms.”

The gold price has been steadily climbing since early May when the US and China increased tariffs on each other’s exports, and hit a five-year high in June. Many investors buy gold to hedge against the decline of a currency, usually the US dollar.

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