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Ten ‘outrageous predictions’ for 2014

Anna Fedorova
Written By:
Anna Fedorova

Saxo Bank has published a list of ten ‘outrageous predictions’ which could play out in 2014 and impact global investment markets.

These potential scenarios range from a return to a ‘Soviet-style economy’ in the EU and a recession in Germany, to a complete failure of the quantitative easing programme in the US.

The bank’s chief economist, Steen Jakobsen, said these ten predictions, which are not the official forecast of the bank for 2014, are not meant to be ‘pessimistic’.

“Looking back through history, changes have always come as a result of the thorough failure of the old way of doing things,” he said. “2014 could and should be the year in which a mandate for change not only becomes necessary, but is also implemented.”

Some of the concerns highlighted by the list point to further political and fiscal uncertainty in the coming year.

Will the US and German economies reach ‘escape velocity’ in 2014, for example, or will they slow to zero growth? Will the upcoming European Parliament elections herald a new anti-EU coalition?

Jakobsen said the ten scenarios are designed to remind us that “a wake-up call is necessary as the alternatives would leave us with a dire outlook”.

The ten ‘outrageous predictions’ are listed below.

1. EU creates a new wealth tax on savings above €100,000 in a return to a ‘Soviet-style economy’.

2. The European Parliament elections see the creation of a strong anti-EU alliance, to include the UK Independence Party.

3. The bubble bursts in the five US technology giants that have been trading at a huge premium to market valuations this year – Amazon, Netflix, Twitter, Pandora Media, Yelp.

4. The yen falls below Ұ80 per dollar, as investors pile back into the currency, forcing the Bank of Japan to delete its government debt in order to escape deflation.

5. The US recovery slows down, bringing deflation worries back to the fore.

6. Far from tapering, the Federal Reserve increases QE to $100bn per month and focuses on mortgage bond purchases to support a flagging housing market.

7. The price of Brent crude falls to $80 per barrel, as producers fail to slow down production.

8. Germany enters an unexpected recession as economic activity slows.

9. The French CAC 40 index drops 40% as local politics takes a turn for the worse.

10. The currencies of the ‘Fragile Five’ countries – Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Turkey – fall 25% against the US dollar.