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Stock picks: Will the recession’s winners be the recovery’s losers?

Tahmina Mannan
Written By:
Tahmina Mannan
Posted:
Updated:
02/12/2013

Who were the winners and losers of the recession – and is their luck set to continue during the recovery?

In the latest Bank of England quarterly inflation report, Mark Carney said a recovery has ‘finally taken hold’ of the UK economy.

But there’s no forgetting the pain of the last few years with companies that were once high street giants or investment portfolio staples falling by the wayside or no longer trading.

The demise of Comet and Woolworths and the volatile months for HMV are just a few examples.

In reality whole sectors felt the turbulence, most notably the banking, manufacturing and property sectors.

Stephen Message, manager of the Old Mutual UK Equity Income fund, says: “Economic growth in the UK has been fairly anaemic since the financial crisis and we have essentially had a ‘survival of the fittest’ environment. Those businesses in a good competitive position with sound business models have been able to grow in part by taking market share from weaker players.”

Here the experts identify the winners and losers of the past few years and look at whether their run of luck will continue as the recovery gains pace.

WINNER: Domino’s Pizza

The pizza group is the biggest in the UK and is one of the few retailers with a large high street presence but that has also managed to successfully navigate business on the internet.

Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor, says: “Eating out is one of the first casualties of any recession, but Domino’s Pizza benefited significantly from the cheaper take-away alternative. The stock rose from 150p in late 2008 to reach the lofty heights of over 700p in June of this year. However as investor confidence has returned to the market the share price has fallen back sharply and is currently trading at 550p.”

Domino’s would be a high risk investment since the company has seen a rapid growth in recent years and questions have arisen as to saturation of the UK market.

But the group has been ramping up its online ordering system and now offer a mobile phone app to make ordering even easier.

Acquisitions and expansion into foreign markets, as well as a strong franchise model, could provide scope for further growth.

WINNER: Associated British Foods (ABF)

The Share Centre’s Helal Miah picks out ABF’s Primark as another benefactor of tighter purse strings: “As the recession caused many households to have less disposable income, the affordability of ABF’s Primark stores have performed well.

“Looking ahead Primark should continue to benefit from further store openings and consumer demand for quality low cost clothing essentials. Openings are expected to pick up in early 2014, with its first step into France.”

WINNER: ASOS

The retailer has gone from strength to strength in the past decade, and it seems the recession did little to dent its runaway success. From its astute business model to realising early on that charging shipping cost was the main cause for friction for online shoppers, ASOS seems unable to do any wrong.

James Thomson, manager of the Rathbone Global Opportunities fund, says: “ASOS was, and continues to be, perfectly positioned in a strengthening sector, with best-in-class website and delivery. The management team were nimble and adaptable, and they continue to expand and improve the business. ASOS has just launched China ASOS.com/cn, which has an untapped market of 323 million 20-somethings.

Thomson says there are significant opportunities to stream-line in direct sourcing, zonal pricing, faster turnaround time, and local distribution centres. Increased investment is also budgeted for 2014, which signals strong confidence in the business model.

WINNER: Sports Direct

Sports Direct stole huge amounts of market share from JJB during the recession and essentially put its competitor out of business. That, coupled with a highly successful strategy of acquiring brands and a strong online strategy, has enabled Sports Direct to perform very well during the recession.

The sportswear retailer is currently sitting on a cash mountain and is expected to put that money towards paying down debts and growing its European footprint. But while experts predict a possibility of dividends in the near future, whether the company can continue its successful business model remains a huge question.

WINNER: British American Tobacco (BAT)

Toby Gibb, investment director at Fidelity, picks British American Tobacco as one business model that is relatively insulated from the economic cycle, having benefitted from strong growth in emerging markets and pricing power.

However, he warns: “BAT has lagged in the recovery as investors have shifted into more cyclical areas and it has also become increasingly concerned over the impact of e-cigarettes.”

WINNER: ARM Holdings

Gibb also cites ARM Holdings, which licenses chips used in smartphones and tablets.

“Its strong track record of innovation and exposure to high growth end markets has enabled the company to continue to grow strongly, despite the tough economic environment,” he says.

Booker Group, Greene King, Howden Joinery and ITV are some other notable winners.

LOSER (to consider): THOMAS COOK

Travel operator Thomas Cook has also had a rough time of it but experts highlight this company as one which has seen its fortune change for the better over the past 16 months.

Shares in the 172-year-old holiday giant took off at the end of November, rising 15% to three-year highs as it said the turnaround plan was ahead of schedule.

William Meadon, fund manager for JPM Morgan Claverhouse Investment Trust, says: “The stock Thomas Cook over the last year is a wonderful “back from the brink” recovery story under new CEO Harriet Green. The company has undergone refinancing, new management, restructuring and cost cutting. Also, we’ve seen a shift from stores to more online activity. Yearend figures last week confirm that management are exceeding expectations.”

Analysts also say there are positive signs that the company could soon start paying a dividend again. Earnings per share increased to 5p for the full-year and net debt dropped sharply from £788m, to £421m and with lower debt levels and higher earnings, the company could justify a return of capital to shareholders.

LOSER (to avoid): RBS

Financial stocks did very badly during the recession with banks in particular suffering.

An increase in bad debts, lower consumer and business borrowing and a subdued housing market all contributed to tough times for banks, but investors should note that this sector is typically also the first to benefit from monetary easing to combat recession since they are direct beneficiaries of lower interest rates.

Portfolio stalwart Royal Bank of Scotland bore the brunt of ill-fated acquisitions and internal scandals on top of recession and the global financial crisis but has recovered somewhat over the last two years.

However, its share price continues to lag its main competitors in the UK banking sector and hurdles remain for this beleaguered bank.

Miah says: “RBS has to be one of the biggest losers of the recession as the banking crisis saw the bank narrowly avoid collapse due to the government bailout. The share price currently sits at 327p – a dramatic fall from the highs of 6000p in 2007.

“In exchange for the government bailout, RBS will have to sell off more businesses, as part of a five year turnaround plan. This includes cutting exposure to problem economies such as Greece and Ireland, selling off branches, cuts in investment banking and cost cutting. The ultimate aim is to end up with a profitable business that we, as indirect shareholders, will be able to sell off, hopefully for a profit, possibly in 2015.”

He suggests investors avoid the stock as there are better opportunities to be had in the market and sector.