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BLOG: What was Thatcher’s real impact on the UK economy?
There was a weary air of predictability within hours and days of Margaret Thatcher’s death about all the things she can be blamed for.
The shortage of housing in the UK, the high cost of power for consumers and the banking crisis were just a few issues that were laid at her door.
Certainly, effectively stopping local councils from reinvesting the proceeds from council house sales into building new homes has not helped with the shortage of housing, but the rise in population is not something we can blame her for.
Is the privatisation of the old state-owned utility and energy companies, such as the National Coal Board, the cause of the higher energy prices we now face?
You could argue the answer is ‘yes’, largely because the UK taxpayer effectively subsidised its own energy prices as these were largely unprofitably run industries. But high energy prices in 2013 are more a result of global demand and supply issues than privatisation.
Banking crisis
And so to financial services. Can Baroness Thatcher be blamed for the banking crisis?
Well, she started what we now call the ‘Big Bang’ – the deregulation of the City that was enshrined in law in the 1988 Financial Services Act.
She started the growth in the financial services industry using popular stock trading apps which saw it go from being a small part of the UK economy, to by some measure over 25% of the UK’s GDP.
Privatisation
Her reforms also went hand-in-hand with a drive to greater share ownership. In my mind, it is not a huge leap of faith to link the privatisation in the 1980s of BT or British Gas with the demutualisation of the likes of Halifax, Norwich Union, Standard Life or Scottish Widows.
And while Halifax might be a mess, Norwich Union (now Aviva) certainly is not, Standard Life is largely flourishing as a public company, while Scottish Widows remains an iconic brand within the broader Lloyds group, which is also a bit of a mess.
Company management
So, can we attribute the performance of these four companies to Baroness Thatcher? Of course not. Halifax became a mess because of poor management.
Scottish Widows had effectively sought security within the Lloyds group long before the current banking crisis because of the issues with guaranteed annuity rates.
Standard became a public company after sensibly learning from the mistakes other former life companies and mutuals had been making, while Norwich Union arguably only repaired its reputation once it became known as Aviva.
My point is a simple one; the success or failure of these companies is down to good or bad management, not Mrs Thatcher.
Big Bang
The changes of the ‘Big Bang’ created PEPs and ISAs, personal pensions, and a more vibrant and competitive financial services industry, which although not universally good, to my mind is a better industry from both the consumer and the industry’s perspective.
We cannot blame Margaret Thatcher for the high level of regulation that is effectively the price to be paid in any sector which is no longer government-underwritten, as is the case with state-owned enterprises.
The former PM did not create the poor direct salesmen of some of the long-gone life companies such as General Portfolio, Cannon Lincoln or the MI Group, to pick on three.
People, their personalities and their egos created the banking crisis, not the landscape Thatcher helped to create 25 years ago. As ever, coming up with a simple answer to a complex problem will satisfy many, but is a long way from the real truth.
Visionary?
Your opinion of Baroness Thatcher and her politics very much depends on your age, and where you were born and brought up in the UK.
For some she was evil, the destroyer of proud industries, while to others she was a visionary who turned the country around from the malaise of the 1970s.
There is no doubt the country needs a Prime Minister now with a genuine vision, rather than a vision of consensus as we have had for the past 15 years (yes, I am talking about Brown, Blair, Cameron and Clegg).
Love her or hate her, without her most of us would not be doing the jobs we are today.
Lawrence Gosling is editorial director of Incisive Media. His views are his own, any comments to him at lawrencegosling1@gmail.com
1979 vs 2013
1
The FTSE All Share closed at 261.29 points at the end of May 1979, the month Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister. It closed at 3,306.04
on 8 April 2013.
(Source: Yahoo Finance).
2
The price of gold in October 1979 was US$414.8, compared with $1,598.3 on 1 April 2013 (Source: World Gold Council, spot gold price in US$ per oz).
3
The average house price in Q4 1979 was £21,966 compared with £163,055 today
(Source: Nationwide, UK House Prices since 1952).
4
Interest rates rose to 17% in November 1979, compared with 0.5% today
(Source: Bank of England).
Compiled by Fidelity
Comparing Prime Ministers: FTSE All Share – Capital Value in £ (1963-2013)
Prime minister |
Party | Start Date | End date | Index start Value | Index end value | No of days in power | Performance Cum% | Performance Ann% |
Alec Douglas-Home | Conservative | 18-Oct-1963 | 16-Oct-1964 | 104.32 | 106.85 | 364 | 2.43 | n/a |
Harold Wilson (1st Term) | Labour | 16-Oct-1964 | 19-Jun-1970 | 106.35 | 127.10 | 2072 | 18.95 | 3.10 |
Edward Heath | Conservative | 19-Jun-1970 | 04-Mar-1974 | 127.10 | 137.72 | 1354 | 8.36 | 2.19 |
Harold Wilson (1st Term) | Labour | 04-Mar-1974 | 05-Apr-1976 | 137.72 | 165.16 | 763 | 19.92 | 9.08 |
James Callaghn | Labour | 05-Apr-1976 | 04-May-1979 | 165.16 | 283.82 | 1124 | 71.85 | 19.22 |
Margaret Thatcher | Conservative | 04-May-1979 | 28-Nov-1990 | 283.82 | 1031.25 | 4226 | 263.35 | 11.79 |
John Major | Conservative | 28-Nov-1990 | 02-May-1997 | 1031.25 | 2142.25 | 2347 | 107.73 | 12.04 |
Tony Blair | Labour | 02-May-1997 | 27-Jun-2007 | 2142.25 | 3363.76 | 3708 | 57.02 | 4.54 |
Gordon Brown | Labour | 27-Jun-2007 | 11-May-2010 | 3363.76 | 2751.43 | 1049 | -18.20 | -6.75 |