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Which companies face demotion in the latest FTSE 100 reshuffle?

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29/11/2018
Royal Mail may drop out of the FTSE 100 in the next FTSE reshuffle on the 4th December.

The group was only promoted to the index earlier this year, an indicator of the shares’ rollercoaster ride. Until May, shares were as high as £6.30, but have plunged after a shock profits warning from new chief executive Rico Back early last month. The shares have lost over a third of their value.

Back said that letter volumes were facing a steeper than anticipated decline while productivity performance and cost savings fell way short of plans. However, Helal Miah, investment research analyst at The Share Centre said the group’s UK parcels business continues to doing well and the European GLS delivery service is growing at a rapid rate. Nevertheless, Royal Mail’s share price is unlikely to recover in time.

Miah says the prime candidate to replace Royal Mail is insurance group Hiscox: “The retail unit is their largest with premium growth in the third quarter of 16.8% while premiums for the group as a whole rose by 14.3% as their Lloyds of London presence and reinsurance units also delivered double digit growth.”

There have been a number of natural disasters lately including the hurricanes and storms making landfall on the US east coast and in Japan, but it has modelled additional claims into its numbers and taken precautions for a Brexit worse-case-scenario.

Miah says Spirax-Sarco Engineering, which supplies steam related, pumps and electrical thermal products to industry and manufacturers, is another possible candidate.

He added: “While there are unlikely to be any more changes between the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 at this reshuffle, we note companies in danger of being relegated in future reshuffles are those exposed to the UK market, including well-known retailers and those exposed to the UK housing market while those pushing for promotion are more internationally exposed and this to us is a clear reflection of the political climate as investors lose confidence in the UK while overseas businesses remain somewhat immune to Brexit with earnings enhanced by a weaker sterling.”

The other potential mover is Thomas Cook, which produced a second profit warning this week following the effects of this summer’s heatwave. The former FTSE 100 company now faces relegation from the FTSE 250.

 

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