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BLOG: All eyes on Carney

Simon Rose
Written By:
Simon Rose
Posted:
Updated:
31/12/2014

In a break from tradition, the new Bank of England governor is expected to confirm that interest rates will remain at historic lows. What will this mean for savers?

This week’s presentation of the Bank of England’s Inflation Report is attracting more interest than usual in the hope that new governor Mark Carney will use it to give an insight into his plans.

Many are anticipating that, as in Canada, he will give forward guidance on interest rates, saying he anticipates that they will remain at current levels for a period of as much as two years.

Many economists, however, apparently believe that the UK economy is on the brink of a sustained recovery. If true, this would imply that interest rates should soon start returning to more normal levels. If rates were suppressed further as growth returned, then the problems caused by inflation would become still more severe.

Although often forgotten, the primary remit of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is to keep CPI inflation to the Government’s 2% target. It has been woefully unsuccessful in this aim.

Despite the stagnant economy inflation has been higher than 2% for the majority of the past five years. Those dependent upon savings income have suffered the double whammy of lower interest rates and the depredation of inflation. Save Our Savers has calculated that Britain’s savers have lost over £220bn since base rate was cut to 0.5% in March 2009.

However, it is not only Britain’s savers who have been hit by inflation in these difficult times. With wage rates stagnant, the depreciating value of the pound has hit almost everyone’s pocket, taking average real income back to a level last seen a decade or so ago. With virtually all of us feeling poorer, the Bank’s failure to tackle inflation has been largely responsible for consumer spending being so moribund.

The previous governor, Mervyn King, recognised that while the Government and the Bank wanted people to spend their savings or borrow more now to boost the economy through consumerism, in the long run, the UK desperately needs a strong savings sector to provide the investment necessary to finance growth. It was, he said, the “paradox of policy”.

An indication from Mark Carney that he wants interest rates to remain at current depressed levels for a sustained period will show that he, too, is guilty of opting for the short-term solution and hang the future. This will be disastrous for savers, who have been paying the price for this crisis for five years already and can no longer preserve the value of their capital.

Even worse, though, is that running down savings to boost spending will be disastrous for the economy as a whole. By undermining savings – and continuing to incentive borrowing – we are eating our seed corn and risking future impoverishment.

Despite some recent signs of recovery, we are still steaming in stormy waters, to use the nautical metaphors of which Mervyn King was so keen. Tearing the boat to pieces to fuel the furnaces may work for a time, but is a hugely unwise way to proceed on a long voyage.

Simon Rose is spokesman for saveoursavers.co.uk