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UK economy stays on course with 1% GDP growth in Q3

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27/11/2012
UK GDP growth for the third quarter of 2012 has been confirmed at 1% by the Office for National Statistics in its second official reading.
UK economy stays on course with 1% GDP growth in Q3

The 1% rise confirms the economy saw the highest quarterly growth rate since the 1.2% jump in Q3 2007.

A slight downwards revision had been expected by some analysts, after September data for the manufacturing and construction sectors – not available at the time of last month’s initial estimate – was worse than expected.

However, despite a downward revision in the output of the UK’s production industries, from 1.1% to 0.9%, GDP held firm.

Much of this quarter’s rise has been attributed to a reversal of the ‘Jubilee effect’ in Q2.

The end of that one-off factor – lost output due to extra public holidays – added 0.5 percentage points to the Q3 figure, Capital Economics said at the time of the ONS’s initial estimate.

The ONS itself said Olympic ticket sales added 0.2 percentage points to the headline figure in Q3.

But others remain gloomy in their prognoses, Bank of England governor Mervyn King cautioned earlier this month that GDP could contract once again in Q4.

IHS Global Insight chief economist said earlier this week it is “increasingly questionable” whether the UK will grow in Q4 following recent data.

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