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Interest rates could rise to 0.75% in the next 12 months

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Written by: Paloma Kubiak
19/09/2017
The Base Rate could be raised twice over the next year from its lowly 0.25% standing, according to a leading economist.

In a research note published by HSBC’s UK economist, Liz Martins, she stated the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote for a 25 basis point rise at its November meeting. Another 0.25% rate rise could take place in May 2018, Martins suggested.

Interest rates would rise to 0.75% in just a few months.

She said: “We think the bank is clearly signalling it intends to raise rates in November. We now expect a 25bp rise in that meeting, followed by another in May 2018, taking the bank rate to 0.75%.

“We had previously expected no rate rise either this year or next. However, while our view on the UK economic outlook has not changed, the BoE’s messaging has: the MPC minutes for the first time alluded to the possibility of a rate rise ‘over the coming months’ in September.

“The bank’s messaging also suggests it wants to do more than just ‘one and done’. Ahead of the September meeting, the market was pricing in just two rate rises by 2020. All of the committee members thought this was too few. If momentum in the economy continues through the early part of next year, then we think a majority will vote for a rise in May.”

The research note comes just days after MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe echoed comments made by BoE governor, Mark Carney, when he said “the possibility of a rate hike has definitely increased”.

At the time, Vlieghe, said: “If these data trends of reducing slack, rising pay pressure, strengthening household spending and robust global growth continue, the appropriate time for a rise in Bank Rate might be as early as in the coming months.”

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