Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February following a period of stagnation in January, which was revised from a 0.1% fall.
Real GDP – which is adjusted for inflation – is estimated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025.
Most economists, including the 30 experts polled by Reuters, predicted a 0.1% growth for the month, but commentators have warned the figures for the month will not reflect the current state of play, as the data came before Trump’s tariffs were introduced.
The increases in production output saw a rise of 1.5% after a drop in January.
While the ONS estimated a boost across each sector of production, construction and services, Marcus Brookes, chief investment officer at Quilter Investors, believes due to the ongoing trade issues in the US, it will be no more than “welcome relief” for the UK’s economy.
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‘Things are incredibly volatile’
Brookes said: “The problem facing the UK, however, is that things are incredibly volatile in the world for what is a very fragile economy. President Trump may have ‘paused’ the reciprocal tariffs on other countries, but the new regime remains unchanged for the UK.
“If anything, the UK has lost a competitive edge, having previously got off lightly in Trump’s announcement last week. This global economic uncertainty is going to do very little for consumer or business confidence in the UK, and as such, growth will continue to be lacklustre.
“This presents a conundrum for both the Government and the Bank of England. Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have staked their Government on producing economic growth, yet have found their hands tied by the situation the UK finds itself in.”
He added: “The UK is in somewhat of a precarious position right now, caught in the crossfire of the constantly changing economic policy of the US. The Government will need to think creatively and find some quick wins in order to sustain this positive reading and negate the economic impact tariffs will bring.”
‘Underlying momentum remains feeble’
Martin Sartorius, principal economist of the Confederation for British Industry, said: “UK GDP growing above expectations in February provides some hope that the economy may have seen a solid expansion over the first quarter, following a soft patch in the second half of last year.
“However, underlying momentum in the private sector remains feeble. Many firms are grappling with higher labour costs following the Autumn Budget, and the recently announced US tariffs are expected to weigh on the UK and global economies.
“Businesses are clear that the Government should try to avoid further escalation in trade tensions, and instead double down on its commitment to free, fair, and open trade. However, firms also need further measures to bolster confidence amid a tough and uncertain operating environment.”
