Household energy bills could stay high throughout 2024 and for the rest of the decade, according to new research from an energy analyst.
The modelling from Cornwall Insight’s third 2023 Benchmark Power Curve, shows little movement from earlier in the year, with prices expected to peak at nearly £130 per MWh in 2024, before falling to a low of just over £80 per MWh by 2030.
While this does mark a large decrease, it remains substantially higher than the pre-energy crisis levels of less than £50 per MWh.
Gas prices are likely to increase again due to the war in Ukraine, but there could also be further disruption due to the Gaza crisis where one gas field has already seen production temporarily halted.
Cornwall Insight forecasts that the Government will miss its 50GW offshore wind capacity target, with potential consequences for net zero.
Modelling from Cornwall Insight, included in its quarterly GB Benchmark Power Curve report, forecasts offshore wind capacity will increase from 12.5GW in 2023-24 to 47.1GW in 2030, narrowly missing the Government’s 2030 goal of 50GW.
‘Time is of the essence’
Tom Edwards, senior modeller at Cornwall Insight, said: “Offshore wind delays, spurred on by cost worries and project setbacks, pose a roadblock to reaching net zero. We can see the country is travelling in the right direction towards a renewables-based electricity system, however, our estimates continue to show it is simply not fast enough to deliver on Government targets.
“Time is of the essence, and it is critical that the Government reassess its commitment to accelerating renewable energy adoption, which includes being more flexible when setting auction parameters to reach the UK’s offshore wind goals.
“Rolling back our net-zero ambitions and slowing our transition away from fossil fuels is likely to be a costly delay that will not only see us fall further behind in decarbonising the country but will leave consumers shouldering the prolonged burden of high prices. Without a resolute commitment to a greener and more sustainable future, achieving net zero emissions and pre-crisis energy bills becomes an increasingly elusive goal.”
