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BLOG: Are we headed for a US bubble?

Darius McDermott
Written By:
Darius McDermott
Posted:
Updated:
10/12/2014

Last week, two of the main US stock market indicies reached all time highs. The Dow Jones hit 16,000 and the S&P 500 hit 1,800 before retreating again slightly.

Cue lots of questions being asked about the outlook for US equities – talk of bubbles and market corrections.

At first glance, the bears have a good point or two. Looking back at the last 10 bull markets, only three have posted better returns than the current one and only two have lasted longer.

Over the last four and a half years, since the market bottom on 9th March 2009, the S&P 500 has returned 185% in US Dollar terms. The best North American fund (in the IMA sectors) has returned 197% (in sterling terms).

This fund is M&G North American Value, if you are interested. The average return for the S&P 500 in a bull market is 140% and the average length of a bull market is just 2.2 years.

So is the market starting to sound a bit ‘toppy’?

Not according to Andrew Goldberg, Global Market Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. He thinks US stocks can continue to climb and I tend to agree.

He argues that while US stocks are certainly no longer cheap, they are not expensive either. Also, asset bubbles tend to coincide with peaks in the economic cycle and the developed market economy has a long way to go until we reach such conditions.

I also think there are a number of new and exciting opportunities in US equities; shale gas, reshoring and technology still transforming the way we live our lives.

Yes, there are a few elephants in the room; the debt ceiling issue is still to be resolved and the political posturing we are likely to see again is just ridiculous.

Then there is the fact that at some point, the US central bank will stop printing quite so much money and eventually (hopefully) stop altogether. But the latter point will actually be a good thing as it will be a sign that the US economy is strong enough to start standing on its own two feet again.

US equities have been unloved by UK investors for long, long time and while the asset class has seen a slight increase in popularity in the last couple of years, most investors are still very underweight what is still the largest economy in the world.

I think there is still room for investors who are significantly underweight US equities, to add to their exposure.

Darius McDermott is managing director at Chelsea Financial Services