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Avoid BP and Shell, says leading fund manager

Nick Paler
Written By:
Nick Paler
Posted:
Updated:
22/04/2013

A top fund manager has warned against buying into BP and Shell amid a dwindling oil price and ongoing issues for both businesses.

While both BP and Shell used to dominate UK income portfolios, BP’s Macondo disaster hammered the stock in 2010 and caused many investors to rethink their investments in the oil majors.

Shares in BP have long since recovered from lows around 300p, after they more than halved following the oil spill off the coast of the US.

However, they remain well below previous highs above 600p, having traded below 500p for the last 12 months.

Shell has predictably fared better – from a three-year low of £15.26 seen back in 2010, it has seen significant gains. Shares hit a peak of £24.89 last January, but since then it too has struggled, closing down more than 10% from that peak at £21.48 last week.

Michael Clark who runs the successful Fidelity MoneyBuilder Dividend fund, one of the top performers in its sector over the last three and five years – has avoided both stocks since 2009.

He said buying in at this stage would be a mistake as there are a number of pressures on the stocks.

“BP has the same problems it had three years ago – it is very difficult for it to grow its production by a meaningful amount,” he said.

The wider sector faces competition from the success of fracking in the US, and as its own internal production rises, its imports are dwindling, putting downward pressure on prices.

The oil price itself has fallen in the last year, down from nearly $120 a barrel to $100 for Brent Crude, with a fall of a similar magnitude for WTI.

Clark said both companies face pressures, with Shell’s dividend in particular an increasing burden for the group.

“With costs inflating and the oil price coming down, it has put pressure on earnings and cashflow,” he said.

“Shell also still has a very high dividend compared to its cashflow, while BP has a lot to get through in terms of Macondo.”

 


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