Geopolitics and global tensions will be the main drivers of prices in the second half of 2024, with the general election and democracy unlikely to sway movements.
According to BullionVault’s investor survey, investors believe prices will rise a further 11.2% this year, after already setting a run of new all-time highs in 2024.
The UK gold price in pounds per ounce is currently trading at £1,840. It set a run of new all-time highs in March and April, peaking at £1,954 on Friday 12 April.
Despite the general election this Thursday, over half of all UK investors (52.6%) believe it won’t matter for the price of gold.
Nor will the US election in November, according to two in five investors worldwide (40.7%) who participated in the customer survey.
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Meanwhile, 20% said the demand for gold will have the largest impact on its price between now and New Year. This is the strongest it’s been across a decade of BullionVault’s surveys, as it explained the jump in Chinese households buying gold “adds to the relentless purchases by emerging market central banks”.
Elsewhere, monetary policy comes in third place, with 17.1% of investors saying this will drive price momentum.
Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, explained that because gold tends to do well when other assets do badly, investing in bullion is often associated with “dark times”.
He said: “The ongoing war in Ukraine, the conflict in Gaza and rising tension between China and the US over Taiwan all means geopolitics is firmly at the forefront of investors’ minds. There’s little darker than democracy’s impact on the world being crowded out by geopolitics.”
He added that financial markets including safe-haven gold are unmoved by this weekend’s win for the National Rally in France, just like bullion prices didn’t move on Trump’s clear win over Biden in last week’s US presidential debate.
“That contrasts with the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum shock, when gold leapt 22% in sterling terms inside six hours, or Trump’s first White House victory that November, when gold spiked 6% against the dollar only to fall hard by the time he took office the following January,” Ash said.
Related: Record number flock to gold in 2023: How to invest in the precious metal
