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‘No crisis’ in emerging markets despite recent sell-off

Joanna Faith
Written By:
Joanna Faith
Posted:
Updated:
10/09/2013

Emerging markets are not even close to crisis and are no more vulnerable to Fed tapering than developed economies, according to one expert.

Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore, the specialist emerging markets asset manager, said fundamentals are improving in most developing countries, aided in part by the pickup in global manufacturing, and that the summer’s sell-off was predominantly “technical in nature”.

Anxious investors shifted money back into developed markets over the summer after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the US may begin to taper its quantitative easing programme.

Emerging markets have been one of the main beneficiaries of central banks’ loose money policy which has seen the Fed inject trillions of dollars into the US economy over the past five years.

“Last Friday’s US payrolls reminded us that the real economic challenges are still in the heavily indebted developed countries,” Dehn said.

“It is encouraging that sentiment about emerging markets slowly improved last week despite rising US treasury yields.

“Countries such as India and Brazil, which only weeks ago were labelled as crisis countries have successfully stabilised their currencies. Others such as Turkey and Indonesia still have work to do, and investors should continue to manage exposures actively, because there are naturally always differences in credit quality across such a vast investment universe.”

Dehn warned of the dangers of judging the emerging market asset class by just a few countries.

“Last week saw two more countries enter the JP Morgan EMBI GD index, the main emerging markets bond index, which now covers 60 countries. The investable universe is far larger. Yet, despite this enormous and diverse universe, the market typically tends to focus on just one or two countries and extrapolate to the entire asset class. This is simplistic, irrational, and inefficient.”

Shares in Ashmore Group jumped more than 8% after the company released strong full year results this morning.

It announced a 22% increase in assets under management in the year ending 30 June, up to $77.4bn (£49.3bn).