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UK dividends dip due to mining sector cuts

UK dividends dip due to mining sector cuts
Emma Lunn
Written By:
Posted:
28/01/2025
Updated:
28/01/2025

UK dividends fell 0.4% in 2024, with reduced payments from the mining sector disguising an improving broader picture.

Figures from Computershare’s latest dividend monitor show that UK dividends rose to £92.1bn in 2024; up 2.3% on a headline basis and boosted by £5.6bn of one-off special payments.

Mining companies reduced their 2024 payouts by £4.5bn to £7bn (40%), meaning the underlying total (which excludes one-offs) fell 0.4% to £86.5bn. The mining sector was the largest dividend-paying sector between 2021 and 2023.

According to the data, 77% of companies raised dividends or held them steady year-on-year in 2024, and the typical (median) per-share growth rate at the company level was 4.5%.

Computershare found that Q4 dividends fell 0.5% on a headline basis, but underlying payouts inched 0.1% higher.

The headline growth rate in 2024, excluding mining, was 8.4% over the year, with underlying growth a more encouraging 4%. Computershare noted that this underlying rate is more in line with the 4.5% median per-share dividend growth across the UK market, which represents the typical rate of increase at each company.

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The only other sector outside mining to see a significant reduction was housebuilding, which was particularly affected by cuts from Persimmon and Bellway, which have suffered from the slow housing market.

Banks, insurance companies and food retailers were among the sectors to make the strongest positive contributions. Overall, 17 out of 21 sectors and 77% of companies saw dividends rise or hold steady year-on-year.

Dividend predictions for 2025

The report expects the outlook for 2025 dividends to be relatively muted. The analysis predicts that median dividend growth per share of 4-4.5% will continue, but that the market total will probably not reflect this, given the announcement of some large cuts (for example, by Vodafone/Three).

Computershare estimates that payouts in 2025 will reach £92.7bn at the headline level – up just 0.7% year-on-year – with the underlying total (which excludes special dividends) set to rise to £88.2bn, up 1% on a constant-currency basis.

Mark Cleland, CEO of issuer services at Computershare, said: “It is worth highlighting that dividend growth was better outside the highly cyclical mining sector. In addition, share buybacks are having an impact, diverting an estimated £42bn-45bn of cash in 2024 to shareholders that might previously have been paid mostly in dividends.

“Even so, the report’s predicted 4-4.5% typical company dividend growth for 2025 is modest in the context of UK inflation at 2.5% and will be impacted again by some notable cuts in the year ahead.

“The report indicates that sharply rising borrowing costs will affect Government finances, economic growth, business investment, profit margins and consumer spending. These higher market interest rates will likely have an impact on the ability of companies to generate cash for shareholders.”