
The latest Labour Market Overview showed annual average regular earnings growth for the private sector for the period from August to October 2024 was 5.4%, and for the public sector, it was 4.3%.
Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner-occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), was 2.2% for both regular pay and total pay.
Unemployment held steady at 4.3% in the three months to October, while vacancy numbers fell. The employment rate was 74.9% – largely unchanged over the year but up over the quarter.
The manufacturing sector saw the largest annual regular growth rate, at 6%. All the other sectors (excluding the public sector) showed similar annual regular growth rates of just above 5%.
Chris Arcari, head of capital markets at Hymans Robertson, said: “Today’s release from the ONS regarding UK wage growth data – showing average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, accelerated from 4.8% year-on-year in September to 5.2% year-on-year in October – all but confirms that the Bank of England (BoE) will leave rates unchanged, at 4.75% pa, at its last meeting of 2024 later this week. This wage data, far higher than is consistent with target inflation, brings the market-based probability of a cut close to zero.

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“Inflation is expected to rise to 3% year-on-year in 2025 as the impact of the Budget’s higher spending is compounded by rising energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation and underlying service sector inflation remain elevated. Nonetheless, we still expect the BoE to reduce rates to less restrictive levels in 2025 as the labour market slowly loosens. We expect between two and three rate cuts in 2025 – not too dissimilar to swap markets’ expectations.”
Kevin Brown, savings specialist at Scottish Friendly, said: “Households may have had a short-term reprieve, but should be prepared for tougher times in the new year. Tougher labour market conditions, including slower wage growth and even job losses appear inevitable. Creating a financial cushion is an important defence against any difficulties. Savers need to be careful on their rates with potential rate cuts on the cards next year, or even look to invest for potentially higher levels of inflation-adjusted income.”
Insolvencies on the up
Other statistics released by the ONS show that, after seasonal adjustment, 10,012 individuals entered insolvency in England and Wales in November 2024. This was 12% higher than in October 2024 and 25% higher than in November 2023.
The individual insolvencies consisted of 589 bankruptcies, 3,693 debt relief orders (DROs) and 5,730 individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs).
Monthly DRO numbers between April and November 2024 were at record highs. This followed the removal of the £90 administration fee to obtain a DRO from 6 April 2024.
The number of IVAs registered in November was similar to the average monthly number seen over the past 12 months. Bankruptcy numbers remained at about half of pre-2020 levels and were also lower than in November 2023.