In Nationwide’s House Price Review and Outlook for 2025, Robert Gardner, the mutual’s chief economist, said upcoming changes to stamp duty were “likely to generate volatility” as buyers brought purchases forward.
From 1 April next year, the nil-rate threshold for stamp duty will fall from £250,000 to £125,000 for residential purchases and from £425,000 to £300,000 for first-time buyers.
Gardner said this would “lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025, especially in March, and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes.”
He added: “This will make it more difficult to discern the underlying strength of the market.”
Toby Leek, NAEA Propertymark president, agreed, saying the trade body’s members reported an “increasing interest in property” with sales higher than the usual winter lull.

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Leek added: “Buyers and sellers in England and Northern Ireland are looking to complete their home move before the stamp duty changes commence from April 2025, and it’s expected that, coupled with slow increases in affordability and wages, this spike of momentum in mortgage approvals and housing market activity will continue.
“After this spike, buyers and sellers with time on their side may then reap the rewards of a slower-paced market to ensure each step of their house move is fully considered.”
Gardner said as long as the economy continues to recover steadily as expected, “the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth”.
The mutual predicted house prices would rise by around 2% to 4% next year.
Estate agent Chesterons made a similar prediction, saying property prices would go up by 3.4% across the UK and 3% in London next year. The firm said this would be supported by lower mortgage costs and “modest but consistent” growth in the economy, and is reliant on inflation staying around the 2% target.
This article is based on one that was first published on YourMoney.com‘s sister site, Mortgage Solutions. Read: Stamp duty change to bring jump in sales in early 2025, Nationwide predicts