Most people expect the UK to enter a recession in 2024, a new study from Quilter has revealed.
A poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of the financial services company found that almost two-thirds (61%) of Brits are not confident the UK will avoid dropping into a recession this year.
By contrast, less than a quarter (22 per cent) are confident one will be avoided.
The study follows recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which found that the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023, while the figures for the second quarter were revised down to show no growth.
With a recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, that means the UK may now be on the brink of a recession.
The Quilter study found that around a third (32%) of Brits are not sure their current finances and earnings will be sufficient to support them in meeting their regular expenses should the nation drop into a recession.
No guarantee of recession
Sue Loveridge, financial planner at Quilter, said that with the cost-of-living crisis having such a significant impact on people’s finances, it was little wonder that so many people felt they would not cope financially should a recession hit.
However, she noted that it is not “a done deal” that there will be a recession, given the fall in inflation and expectation of base rate falls this year which would mean lower and more affordable mortgage repayments.
She added: “There are also plenty of opportunities for savers and investors this year. For many people, cash has felt like a safe place over recent years given the higher interest rates on offer, but cuts to central bank interest rates can act as immediate stimulants to financial markets. If you are sat in cash, you risk missing out on the best days which could cost you considerably in the long run.”
