The 4.5% annual figure for the April to June 2024 period is down on the 5.7% published for the three months to May.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), this lower figure is because of a one-off bonus paid to NHS staff last June, which is also likely to impact next month’s earnings data.
However, Steven Cameron, pensions director at Aegon, said while not yet certain, the 4.5% figure “gives the best indication yet of… how much the state pension will increase next April under the triple lock”.
Under the pension triple lock mechanism, which Labour has committed to, state pensioners receive an annual increase equal to the highest of price inflation, earnings growth, or a minimum rate of 2.5%.
With the latest inflation figure sitting at 2%, Cameron said that “even if we see modest increases in coming months, it’s highly likely that the increase will be based on earnings growth”.
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He added: “The specific figure used for determining the triple lock is the year-on-year increase in earnings for the period ending May to July 2024, which will be published next month in mid-September.
“Barring any big fluctuations when July’s earnings figures are added in, this suggests state pensioners may receive around a 4.5% increase.”
Cameron suggested that for someone on the full new state pension of £221.20 per week, this would equate to an increase of £9.95 to a total of £231.15 per week. For those who reached the state pension age before 6 April 2016 and who are on the full basic state pension of £169.50, the increase could be around £7.63, bringing them to £177.13 per week.
Employment, inactivity and vacancy figures
Turning our attention to employment figures, early estimates for July 2024 indicate there were 30.4 million payrolled employees, a rise of 0.8% compared with the same period of the previous year.
This is a rise of 252,000 employees over the 12-month period. Compared with the previous month, the number of payrolled employees increased by 0.1 % in July 2024, an increase of 24,000 people.
The UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64) was estimated at 74.5% in April to June 2024, below estimates of a year ago, but increased in the latest quarter. In total, just over 33 million people are in employment.
Meanwhile, the UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years old and over) was estimated at 4.2% in April to June 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter. This means 1.43 million are estimated to be unemployed.
Elsewhere, the economic inactivity rate (for people aged 16 to 64) was estimated at 22.2% in April to June 2024, above estimates of a year ago, but largely unchanged in the latest quarter. In total, figures reveal there are 9.4 million people in this category.
The UK claimant count for July 2024 increased on the month and on the year to 1.8 million.
And, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in May to July 2024 by 26,000 on the quarter, coming to 884,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 25th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic levels.
The ONS also revealed there were an estimated 100,000 working days lost because of labour disputes across the UK in June 2024. The majority of the strikes were in the health and social work sector.
